Why Your Tax Refund Might Be Smaller This Year — 7 Reasons and What to Check

Many taxpayers are seeing smaller refunds in 2025. Below are the main reasons and the checks clients should make before lodging.

Why refunds are smaller

•  Low and Middle Income Tax Offset ended after 2021–22, removing up to $1,500 for many taxpayers.

•  HECS/HELP repayment settings changed: a one-off 20% debt reduction at 1 June 2025, indexation capped at the lower of CPI or Wage Price Index, and a raised repayment threshold of $67,000.

•  ATO data-matching has widened to include banks, STP, crypto exchanges, gig platforms and property records, increasing detection of undeclared income.

•  Private health insurance prefill timing can cause incorrect or missing rebate data if returns are lodged before funds finalise their feeds.

•  Lodgement timing and stricter penalties mean rushed or early lodgements often trigger reviews and adjustments.

What to check before lodging

•  Wait for finalised prefill for STP and private health insurance where possible.

•  Reconcile all income sources: PAYG, dividends, interest, rental, gig economy, crypto disposals.

•  Verify HECS/HELP debt balance and repayment calculation based on the $67,000 threshold.

•  Confirm entitlement to any remaining offsets and tax credits.

•  If unsure or if complex income exists, use a registered tax agent to extend lodgement and reduce risk.